30 year mortgage rates in the United States are the lowest they've been since April 2023, at 6.2%. But demand for new mortgages isn't budging. Here is the chart:sourceYou can see immediately what the problem is from the above graph.

The Fed has a dual mandate; low inflation and low unemployment. Sometimes the data on job gains gives you a clearer picture than the unemployment rate (which only counts those actively looking for jobs but can't find one). Take a look at the following chart which plots a three-month moving average of monthly job gains (the average smoothes the noise of monthly spikes or dips):

The only previous times budget deficits have been this high have been during severe crises - the World Wars and the Covid pandemic when the economy was shut down. Here is the graph from the Federal Reserve's public statistics:

They were marked down by a whopping 818,000 for the 12 months through March or around 68,000 less each month.The Bureau of Labor Statistics does make regular revisions to their statistics, as more data comes in, but this is the biggest downward revision since 2009. See

The good news is that this is an improvement on last year when the deficit was $1.6 trillion for the first 10 months of the 2023 fiscal year.The bad news is that high debt interest is still causing massive problems. See the following graphic from the US Treasury:

US CPI for the year ending June came in at 3%. down from 3.3% for May. Here is the chart:sourceThe markets are excited because they think this means an interest rate cut by September.But the Fed's target for inflation is 2%, and there is no sign they'll achieve it by September. Indeed inflation has been in the 3% to 3.5% range for nine months. Far from cutting rates, the Fed might need to hike to get inflation down to 2% (though they won't hike till after the election).