Seeing it all play out in slow motion.
There are three major technologies slogging along towards some kind of cohesive center.
All of these technologies thus far are largely quite optional within society:
- 3D printing
- AI
- Crypto
While all technology is technically optional to the individual there are many things that almost everyone has in the developed world. Most people have a car. Most people have internet and a dataphone. Most people have access to running water and soap. I'm starting to think that 3D printing, AI, and crypto will one day be added to this list of widespread adoption, but the way this is happening seems to be different than the tech of the past.
Walled gardens going up at the dumbest time?
The entire WEB2 model is crumbling and many companies are scrambling to do whatever they can to fill in the cracks appearing within the foundations. The Internet works best and synergizes the most when data is freely accessible and open to the world. We are currently seeing a reversal of this. Many companies are trying to cut off access to the outside world by limiting their APIs. Often the reason given for this is "bots", but bots have been around for decades. I've personally seen it happen on Discord and several other social media sites.
The problem is that WEB2 and AI do not mix.
AI is scraping the entire internet to train its LLMs. WEB2 says, "sure go ahead and connect to the API for free no problem." It's been that way for a long time, but this strategy is no longer working because there is simply too much automation out there looking to scrape all the free data. Free data is a thing of the past, and that's part of why WEB3 is so important.
Pay for service, but also get paid for service.
The ultimate idea behind the WEB3 model is that you have to pay for bandwidth. At face value it sounds like a downgrade; it sounds like a retrograde back into WEB1 subscription models. However the main difference is that WEB3 allows the user to generate more value than they expend when following the rules of the protocol. At least that's the theory anyway. Thus far it is not a stretch to claim that WEB3 is still an unimplemented myth. We can see now with the current tech stack that it could be a thing (and often claim we've already solved the problem) but the reality of the situation remains illusive.
Think of it like a toll road.
You might have to pay to drive on a road, and that might be annoying to some people, but also you're driving to work on that road and the toll ensures that unnecessary traffic stays to a minimum. Crypto works in largely the same way: we have to pay the toll to use the network so that traffic stays within acceptable levels. Decentralization isn't cheap.
WEB2 is trying to make the switch but it's very difficult and awkward. The best example I can give here are the content creation sites that share ad revenue. We can see this on Youtube, Twitch, X, and elsewhere. Very popular accounts can make a quite decent living, but lesser known accounts hardly make anything. In a way it's somewhat like a job lottery jackpot situation. Of course the fact that these WEB2 services maintain domineering control of their products and ban users on a whim is not very conducive to a thriving stable economy that people can count on.
Boom and busts
Both AI and crypto have had massive boom and busts over their lifecycle. I believe this is due to the digitally abstract nature of these technologies. Everyone can see the potential and there is no physical limit imposed on the tech. That creates massive speculation and greed to flood both industries. 3D printing is different because creating that physical product requires raw materials that often kill most, if not all, of the profitability. That being said 3D printing may end up being the lynchpin that allows us to completely break away from goliath centralized production.
Own nothing and be happy, peasant!
People in power tend to want to stay in power. This is just human nature. However, we're reaching an irony inflection point. If power consolidates too much the entire economy breaks because that same economy depends on money cycling through itself just like a heart needs blood to pump. If we automate out all the jobs what's the endgame here? Give money away with a UBI to prevent companies that provide mass services from going out of business? Somethings tells me making citizens even more dependent on the state's handouts isn't going to end well.
Light at the end of the tunnel?
Looking at what AI has been achieving, especially in the realm of software development, shows me that these three technologies can theoretically decentralize production in a way that nothing else could have possibly attempted before. Those who hate AI, of which are many, have a grievance with how many jobs are being automated out of existence and the "theft" of intellectual property. At the same time AI is allowing smaller teams or even solo engineers the ability to accomplish tasks that were previously impossible before. Those who create good prompts and organization become their own one-man army. Sure, that means code monkeys are in a bit of trouble, but it also means that creatives have the world at their fingertips.
3D printing is largely the same idea but still needs a lot more work to become viable. The main concept is that printing physical products with a little magic gun means that one person or entity can build things that were previously impossible. Crypto is the same story. Before crypto you needed to be a literal country to print money and define the rules of that asset. Now one person can do it.
Wen convergence?
My theory is when these technologies begin to work together we'll see the real magic happen. Imagine being able to 3D print an object who's blueprint was developed with AI, and then selling product or blueprints through some kind of crypto. It can get crazy pretty fast once the secret sauce for these things is contained within a working template that anyone can copy and know how it works up front. It's the development of such things that take forever to get to, and often require a bit of luck as well to create something viable.
Conclusion
WEB2 companies can see the writing on the wall. Free data is no longer a working model, and it only gets worse as time ticks forward. What these companies don't understand is that hunkering down and cutting themselves off from the internet with more walled gardens is only going to work in the short term. Eventually WEB3 will come around and make them completely obsolete. Unfortunately it's hard to imagine the CEOs of these mega-corporations being able to make a transition to the new tech stack. Intellectual property is a thing of the past, and all the real value is stored within the community itself. It's essentially the opposite of what we have now, which is why it's taking so long to come to fruition. Slowly, then all at once.