Saturday started ok but ended poorly as I just was not able to keep my discipline avoiding some bets that I should not have taken. However, there is still everything to play for with 4 matches to go on Sunday.

Club Brugge vs Anderlecht

Club Brugge remains the team with most quality in the league and they now can have all their focus on te. They did really good in Europe against teams who want to go forward and the main question now is if they will be able to also break down teams who will opt to defend. That is what I expect Anderlecht with new coach Hasi to do. I'm expecting a match where Brugge goes at it from the start either full force or with patience while Anderlecht just focuses on defense hoping to get in a rare counter. In the last encounter, Brugge was 5-0 on the corners in the 1st half despite the fact that they scored in the 8th minute. I expect a similar scenario where nearly all danger will be on the side of the Anderlecht goal. I took 0.25 units on Club Brugge 1st Half -0.5 Corners @ 1.680 with an eye to possibly take more in-game. I also took an early bet of 0.115 units on Club Brugge 1st Half -0.25 @ 1.810.

Kortrijk vs Cercle Brugge

Cercle Brugge should be the team that is just too good for the Playdowns and I expect high energy and motivation from them. Winning today would put a real blow in the hopes of Kortrijk but at the same time with the win of Stvv yesterday, the pressure is really on for Cercle Brugge which might be a factor. Kortrijk has improved a lot under their new coach and they live on hope. With 6 points behind though they kind of need to win this first match so I do expect a game where both teams are just going to go for it instead of crawling back afraid. If the needed quality will be there to score is a different thing though. The previous encounter was the first match of the coach change for Kortrijk who took a 1-1 draw against Cercle. Kortrijk was better in that match with a 1.33-0.29 xg while Cercle had an off-day. I see that mainly as the reason for the high odds on Cercle Brugge. For now I'm willing to take only 0.2 units on Cercle Brugge +0 @ 2.032 with also an eye on the over.

Racing Genk vs AA Gent

Racing Genk remains a better team than AA Gent but this is the first match of the playoffs where the points got halved so the pressure will really be on for Genk especially if Club Brugge managed to win against Anderlecht. AA Gent played a poor season but have shown much better things lately and kind of are a team in a good flow. This keeps me away from taking Genk as a -1 favorite even though this easily could turn out in a very straightforward home win similar to Union Yesterday. The last encounter at the end of February ended in a 0-0 game in an even match. I think the total line is possibly set a bit too high and took 0.1 unit on Under 3 @ 2.050 & 0.083 units on 1H Under 1.25 @ 1.993

Dender vs Westerlo

Dender in the regular season was a team who played with high pressing also beating their asian handicaps at home just narrowly. They are last in playoff 2 and the big question remains how motivated they will be to make something of it. They also were and under team at home in the regular season going 4.5W-9.5L-1p on under against the asian total line. Westerlo was one of the few over teams but in the end only narrowly beat those handicaps. They should be the team with more overall quality and I do expect them willing to go forward at least at some point as their matches often start out with a rather long study round. So all depends on the intentions of these teams and this certainly could turn into one of those crazy high playoff 2 scores. The previous encounter was an even match with a 1-0 score. Dender lost their last 4 home matches on the corner with an average of 4 while Westerlo won 3 of their last 4 away corners. I did take 0.15 units on Westerlo +0 corners @ 1.900 and also could not resist 0.1 units on Westerlo +0.25 @ 1.822 which feels just a bit too high.

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