Snake Lines - An approach to current politics.

Today I was riding home from school with Lily. She’s pretty good in traffic for her 6,5 years, definitely better than most adult Ecuadorians – which isn’t that hard, given that most of them don’t even drive on the “right” side of the road, but always counter traffic. It’s tradition, so nobody bothers. Another showcase for that the laws here are not developed based on the culture and its values, but copied without further thought. But that’s not important right now.

So, we were driving down the road, and Lily started doing what we call “snake lines” (Schlangenlinien) in German, swinging left and right, but without any clear pattern. I told her to stop that as it was dangerous, and she did. But then I thought: What if it isn’t? What if doing snake lines is actually safer?

Bear with me for a second. Let’s pretend that people here are actually considerate drivers, and do care about not doing harm to anyone. If they see a kid doing snake lines, a driver like that will be more cautious, as the pattern is unpredictable. The driver will leave more room for the swings when passing. If Lily drives in a straight line, the driver will be lulled into a false sensation of safety, as everything seems normal, and will drive by in the regular distance. Now, if suddenly the football (the one from the drivers license test, you all know it) rolls on the street and Lily sways to evade it in a sudden and unforeseeable event – which behavior will have given her more safety, the snake lines or the straight, clear and foreseeable line?

Yes, there are a lot more variables. But now we can use this as a metaphor for what is happening in the USA right now. Maybe it’s the same in politics. I certainly find the behavior of the president of the USA quite erratic, at least in his exterior policies. Tariffs yes no yes no yes no, Ukraine yes no yes no yes no. I can see the goals, of course, as a car can see the end of the street, the next crossing or whatever is the next point of likely change to the bicycles behavior (yes, we’re still working with that metaphor). But I never know in which direction he will sway next. And it seems like even the people supposed to be smarter than me and do “them politics stuff” do not have an idea.

That gives Trump and his administration and advantage. The advantage is that all the possible “opponents”, be it allies or foes, are not used to behavior like that as usual diplomatic and exterior policy behavior is quite straight-lined. They will rather take cautionary actions and with that the safest way possible to deal with the snake lines. They will make the deals necessary, trying somehow to understand what exactly is going on, using their vast experience to deal with what they never experienced before.

But, and that is very important – they will pass by. Maybe right now the road is still too narrow, or there’s counter traffic, or a kid is picking up a football on the other side of the street. But this won’t be forever. The USA is big, and probably could use some time on the bicycle, but it’s not too big to pass by. If they keep on like that, isolating themselves, everybody else will isolate them as well. Maybe to a healthy point of less globalization (which is necessary in my opinion), maybe to another extreme of isolation (which would be the pendulum theory, but I hope it doesn’t come to that). The entanglements will be reduced, both the positive as the negative ones.

After a while, the other leaders will get used to the snake lines. They won’t pay as much attention to them as right now. Even worse, they might notice that they’re the car – if the bicycle bumps into them, the car might get a scratch or a little dent in the aluminum. The biker, though, can get seriously injured. And if the bicycle sways too much and is too annoying and does not think about those behind them but only about itself, pretending to own the road – the car might stop caring and just pass. Again, the USA is very important in the world economy – but the rest of the world together is still more important than the USA. It’s a good thing for the USA that the rest of the world is quite divided. Except for BRICS, but even that project will take a long time to develop.

My opinion would be: Erratic behavior can be good for the short term, as it wakes the others up and makes them pay more attention. That brings safety on the bike, and advantages in politics. But I wouldn't use it as a long term strategy, as it annoys people and drives them away or makes them mad. Maybe from time to time a little erratic behavior to keep people on their toes, and walking the line somewhat straight in between. But that's just me believing that balance is the best, always.

Please drop your opinion in the comments! Commentrewarder is on, so every interesting comment will actually be rewarded :-)

Also - should I teach Lily how to drive as it's normal here, or actually have her stick to the rules? Sticking to the rules is basically the equivalent to "unpredictable" here...