閱讀心得:持續買進 Part.3 Reading experience: Just Keep Buying Part.3

2023-12-25T17:34:03

今天繼續分享"持續買進"一書的內容。第14章提到為什麼不該逢低買進,這個問題曾經困擾著我。雖然我已經跳脫這個問題了,但書中的解釋讓我對自己的看法更有信心。


章節中作者運用真實的數字計算,來比較逢低買進與持續投資的方式。除非剛開始投資的時候就遇上了2000年這種等級的股市大跌,不然70%的情況逢低買進是敵不過平均成本的方式。而且這個結果,是以有辦法知道市場最低點為前提。

其實這也與第13章的內容有所呼應,就是一有閒錢就是投入市場。但不同的是第13章所提的是一大筆資金,所以建議上有所不同。一次性投入S&P500指數大多數時候是優於分批進場,但也存在風險較高的可能。犧牲部份利益持有部分的債券是降低一次投入在市場高點的風險。


雖然我沒有一大筆的閒錢,這些內容對目前的我並不適用。但確實親友問我投資相關的問題時,很多時候是有一筆不小的金額問要如何投資。我以往都是建議它們一定期間內規劃分批投入,現在想來可能還需要想想兩種方式的優劣。由於書中的觀念我剛吸收,還沒辦法去驗證或思考更深。

但在逢低買進的議題上,我的確有段時間都在思考這個問題。我原本的想法是,價格在當前是合理不過高時,就不需要去追求買在低點。有的時候等了一兩年都不會有明顯低價,反而第一時間買的價格,經過一兩年的股利累積,當作兩年後買在低點都是明顯可見的。


如果經過兩年等到了低點,也可能與兩年的股利累積差不多。的確有機率會獲利更多一些,但等不到低點錯過慢慢成長的機率感覺上會更高。雖然道理上很簡單,當初在剛開始摸索投資時,觀念上其實也經過糾結,經過一段時間的思考與想像才把屬於自己的觀念逐漸成形。

投資也許在每個人的眼中就是不一樣的房屋,內容與外觀都是個人喜好而定。有的時候別人設計好的樣式自己並不喜歡,微調或著換個風格會更適合自己。就像我看"持續買進"這本書,裡頭可能會部分與我過去認知不同,試著理解作者的表達,比較與自己原有觀念的差異,選擇更適合自己的方式。

The following text was translated by Google translate, and there may be some areas where the sentences are not very smooth, so please forgive any imperfections.

Today I will continue to share the content of the book "Just Keep Buying". Chapter 14 mentions why we shouldn’t buy on dips. This question bothered me before. Although I have moved beyond this question, the explanations in the book make me more confident in my own opinion.


In the chapter, the author uses real numerical calculations to compare the methods of buying on dips and continuous investing. Unless we encounter a situation similar to the stock market crash in 2000 when we first started investing, 70% of the time, buying on dips will be no match for dollar-cost averaging. And this result is based on the premise that there is a way to know the lowest point of the market.

In fact, this also echoes the content of Chapter 13, which is to invest in the market as soon as we have spare money. But the difference is that Chapter 13 mentions a large amount of money, so the suggestions are different. Most of the time, a one-time investment in the S&P500 Index is better than entering the market in batches, but there is also the possibility of higher risks. Sacrifice part of the interest and hold part of the bond is to reduce the risk of investing at a high point in the market.


Although I don't have a lot of spare money, these contents are not applicable to me at the moment. But it is true that when my relatives and friends ask me investment-related questions, they often ask me how to invest a large amount of spare money. In the past, I suggested that they plan to invest in batches within a certain period of time. Now that I think about it, I may need to think about the pros and cons of the two methods. Since I have just absorbed the concepts in the book, I haven’t been able to verify them and need think about them more deeply.

But on the issue of buying on dips, I have indeed been thinking about this issue for some time. My original thought was that when the current price is reasonable but not too high, there is no need to pursue buying at a low point. Sometimes there is no obvious low price after waiting for one or two years. On the contrary, the price at which I buy it at the first time, after one or two years of dividend accumulation, is clearly visible as if I bought it at a low point two years later.


If I wait until it reaches the low point after two years, it may be similar to the two years of dividend accumulation. There is indeed a chance that I will make more profits, but the chance of missing out on slow growth and can't see low point seems to be higher. Although the principle is very simple, when I first started exploring investment, I actually struggled with my concepts. It took a period of thinking and imagination to gradually form my own concepts.

Investment may be a different house in the eyes of everyone, and the content and appearance are all determined by personal preferences. Sometimes we don’t like the style designed by others, and fine-tuning or changing the style will be more suitable for us. Just like when I read the book "Just Keep Buying", some parts of it may be different from my past understanding. I try to understand the author's expression, compare the differences with my original ideas, and choose a method that is more suitable for me.

Photo by

Toni Frost

on

Unsplash

29
0
7.665
Replies (0)