"You need to think about the broader consequences of acting hastily," or similar advice. These will be the typical responses of politicians and diplomats to any unanticipated incident that significantly disturbs their peace and necessitates quick decision-making.
The Houthi "offensive" against merchant shipping in the Red Sea has been going on for more than a month, and aside from some helpful defensive action by local naval units and some stern words about the consequences of such piratical behavior, the situation is drifting, much like some of the ships that are standing off this crucial trade lane.
A growing realization that nothing will happen quickly while the diplomatic options are considered has replaced the abundance of wise words expressed and written about the fear of escalation should strong action be taken against the pirates committing these atrocities against international shipping. However, commerce is impatient, which is why over a thousand ships that were originally planning to travel the Red Sea route have already chosen to bypass the Cape of Good Hope.
Even while the longer journeys may have good effects on containership utilization, diversions of this nature include a broad range of practical repercussions and are not simply limited to downloading new charts. The phrase "range anxiety" may be linked to electric car drivers, but large ship operators may also be concerned about bunkering, consumables, stability, and other issues in addition to the obvious manpower shortage when faced with an unexpected two weeks of extra steaming.
Except for the Ever Given incident in 2021, the Suez Canal was last closed in 1973. It took some time for the ship service infrastructure in the Cape, which catered primarily to South Africa, to become fully operational. Arguably, South Africa's ports are no more capable of responding quickly to offer assistance to passing ships than they were a century ago. Even though it is the southern summer at the Cape of Storms, the weather is always an issue in that voyage, and if the crisis lasts into the southern autumn, there may be some concerns about Asia-European containerships with boxes piled ten high on deck.
Shippers are already feeling the pinch of the rate increases and diversions, but if the Red Sea remains off-limits for an extended period, it will show up in the form of shortages and inflationary pressure. There are economic consequences for Egypt, which is actively investing billions of dollars in the Canal and its expanding economic zone and which, more than anything else, depends on stability for everything to advance.
While some carriers may be hesitant to deploy their ships into a conflict zone due to concerns about the impact on their crews, insurance, and reputation, others will continue, taking a calculated risk in the hopes that friendly warships will be nearby to protect them or that drones won't target them.
Welfare organizations and seafarers' representative bodies have already expressed concern about stress, mental health, and the uncertainty associated with operating in suddenly hazardous conditions. One may argue that mariners already have enough to deal with in addition to the obvious risks in the Black Sea, which include the return of Somali piracy, hostage-takers operating in the Gulf of Guinea, and sea robbers operating in Southeast Asian waters. It's hardly precisely a way to convince a younger generation that there's fun variation in the sea life or to encourage crew retention.
Regretfully, the capacity to rely on naval defense is not a given at all, as it is discovered that several navies are forced to sell, recycle, or lay up perfectly good warships due to a shortage of personnel to crew them. For today's kids, a life on the rolling main, in the cramped quarters onboard warships, or worse, in submarines, has little appeal. The politicians had better get off their high horse and deal with the Red Sea pirates while they still have it.
